A New Equilibrium in International Oil Prices Has Yet To Be Found

The global economic recovery was relatively smooth this summer, and international oil prices continued to stabilize in July and August. However, since September, the international oil price has entered a period of frequent and sharp fluctuations and the range of fluctuations has dropped significantly due to negative factors such as the apparent rebound of the epidemic in many countries, the resumption of crude oil export by Libya, the end of the peak oil season in summer and the expected slowdown of China's crude oil import.

Analysts believe that Hurricane Delta and the strike at Norway's offshore fields are short-term positive for international oil prices, which are expected to adjust again once the market refocuses on the outlook for oil demand. In addition to the outbreak, oil prices will be heavily influenced by Opec's decision to raise output again in January and near-term progress in talks on a new round of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile until a new equilibrium is found.

The first-line PRICE of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fluctuated plus or minus 3% on six and five days in September and the first nine days in October, compared with two and zero days in July and August, according to reporters. In particular, five of the first seven trading days in October showed fluctuations of more than 3%, indicating a significant rise in the recent volatility of international oil prices.

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