Exports Of Refined Oil Products This Year Are Likely To Be Lower Than Last Year

Jin Lianchuang learned that the planned export volume of gasoline and diesel from the four state-owned oil companies was about 3.19 million tons in October, up 9% from a year earlier and down 3% from the previous month. In terms of products, the planned amount of gasoline is 1.428 million tons, 18% lower than that of the previous year and basically flat compared with the previous month. The planned diesel volume is 1.76 million tons, up 48% year on year and down 6% month on month.

August data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that gasoline and diesel exports totaled 2.31 million tons, up 38 percent from the year's low of 1.67 million tons in July.

At the same time, the planned export volume in September and October both exceeded 3 million tons, indicating that China's gasoline and diesel export reached the bottom in June and July and gradually recovered from the trough.

Jin Lianchuang, an analyst, said the export situation has been relatively strong since August. In the second half of the year, diesel stocks of state-owned oil companies are under high pressure, and the need to balance domestic resources is urgent. In addition, Singapore's spot gasoline prices rose, export operations turned into a profit, so are actively operating in order to increase exports.

But on the whole, the lifting resistance is still large. Jin Lianchuang had been informed that there was an additional plan for diesel export in August, but it was not actually reflected, indicating that the export outflow pressure was still large.

Inventories are an important indicator of the market's supply and demand situation, and Singapore's light/medium distillate stocks both rose in September, exceeding their levels during the worst of the outbreak.

In addition, according to market participants, some main refineries in the fourth quarter intended to continue to reduce the operating rate, to adjust the high internal pressure of inventory.

According to the announced export volume of the first August, September and October, it is expected that the cumulative export volume of gasoline from January to October will be around 13 million tons, basically flat compared with last year. Cumulative diesel exports from January to October were around 16.6 million tonnes, down 5.6 per cent from a year earlier. In addition, jet fuel exports have been most affected by the epidemic. It is understood that the exports of jet coal from January to October are likely to be less than 9.5 million tons, down nearly 50% from the same period last year.

Overall, total exports of steam and diesel coal from January to October were around 39m tonnes, down nearly 30 per cent from a year earlier. As a result, the export of refined oil products in 2020 will be significantly lower than last year's level.

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