Institutional Point Of View

EIA

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's August Short Term Energy Outlook, the average WTI crude oil futures price in 2021 is expected to be $45.54 / BBL, down 0.4% from the July forecast. The EIA also raised its forecast for WTI prices this year by 2.5% to $38.50 a barrel. The EIA forecasts brent futures to average $49.53 / BBL in 2021, down 0.3% from its July forecast. It also raised its forecast for this year's Brent crude futures price by 2.3% to $41.42 a barrel.

GOLDMANSACHS

On August 31, Goldman Sachs said that while current weak economic fundamentals could still lead to a short-term spot sell-off in crude oil, holding Brent futures for the long term would yield better returns. Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent will rise from $45 a barrel to $65 in the third quarter of 2021; WTI will also recover to $55.88 a barrel. Goldman Sachs said it expects the coVID-19 vaccine to be widely available by the spring of next year, supporting global economic growth and a recovery in oil demand. In addition, global oil demand is expected to increase by 3.7 million barrels a day from January to August next year.

IHS Markit

IHS Markit said in early August that the oil market had returned to a "relatively stable" state, but due to the second coVID-19 outbreak, brent futures prices are expected to average in a narrow range of $40 to $47 per barrel by mid-2021, and may eventually break above $50 per barrel by the second half of 2021. IHS Markit raised its 2020 Brent futures price forecast by $7.09 a barrel to $42.35. Raised its 2021 Brent futures price forecast by $5.25 a barrel to $49.25.