Global oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels a day in 2028, two years earlier than previously projected by 2030, due to global efforts to shift to low-carbon energy and the continuing impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, according to a new report by industry consultancy Restal Energy.

Global oil demand will fall to 89.3m b/d this year, According to Resta; Demand will rebound to 94.8 million b/d by 2021, but will be slow to recover due to the regional lockdown caused by the outbreak and the lackluster recovery of the aviation industry.

Global oil demand will recover to 98.4 million barrels a day by 2022, the report said. Global oil demand will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels of 101 million barrels per day until 2023, up from 99.6 million barrels per day in 2019.

"Taken together, the COVID-19 outbreak will dramatically change estimates of peak oil demand in terms of timing and volume." ArtyomTchen, senior oil market analyst at resta energy.

Moreover, the acceleration of the energy transition is putting pressure on oil demand to peak. Global oil demand is expected to fall sharply to 62m b/d by 2050, driven by high penetration of electric vehicles, Mr Tchen said.

The report also notes that global oil demand will plateau after peaking between 2025 and 2030, during which Resta energy expects strong structural oil demand growth to be driven mainly by Asia and Africa.

It is worth noting that many industry bodies have inconsistent judgments about when oil demand will peak.

In its latest World Oil Outlook report, Opec predicted that global oil demand would not peak for the next 20 years and would surpass pre-epidemic levels in 2022 and begin to grow steadily after 2035.

Oil giant Aramco says the world will need oil and gas for the foreseeable future, and peak oil demand is still far off.

By contrast, BP suggested in its annual Outlook for September that global oil demand may have peaked last year. In its latest World Energy Outlook report, the International Energy Agency said global oil demand would peak around 2030, but it could take years to recover from the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and would not peak as previously expected.

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