In recent years, the international oil price is in the downward channel as a whole, and has fallen below the floor price of $40 / BBL. Under this, on November 5 domestic oil prices will usher in a new round of downward.

Recently, the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States has rebounded again, and some countries have blocked it again. Oil demand has been depressed again. Meanwhile, Libya's plan to increase oil production to 1 million b/d within four weeks increased supply-side pressure and oil prices fell. Tropical Storm Zeta made early landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, halting some oil production in the region, and Russia said it would not rule out postponing OPEC+ 's planned output increase from January, but the boost would be short-lived. On the whole, negative factors have exerted significant pressure on the market, and international oil prices have dropped significantly. WTI and Brent have fallen below $40 / b and are still fluctuating below this level.

Affected by this, the domestic oil price adjustment reference crude oil change rate also toward negative development.　According to the estimation of Jinlianchuang, by the eighth working day of November 3, the average price of reference crude oil is 39.67 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of -6.02%. The corresponding retail price of gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 180 yuan per ton.　The comprehensive change rate of crude oil monitored by Lonzhong Information is -4.01%, which is expected to be reduced by 175 yuan/ton.

"Excluding the decline of USD 40 / barrel, it is estimated that the retail price of this round of refined oil products will drop by about RMB 160 / ton to RMB 170 / ton, which is equivalent to price increases of RMB 0#0.15 yuan, RMB 92#0.13 yuan and RMB 95#0.14 yuan. The price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 5. Jin Lianchuang analyst Zou Xuelian said.

Under this, the domestic market also lacks the good support, "silver 10" dismal end.　Statistics from Jinlianchuang show that as of November 3, the average price of 0# diesel oil in China was 4905 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from October 22.　The average price of 92# gasoline was 5,488 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton from October 22.

Ms. Zou explained that while industries such as construction and infrastructure are rushing ahead, diesel demand still has support.　However, during the second quarter, the market was more optimistic than expected for the future market, so that there was a large amount of goods in the downstream early period, while the recovery degree of the demand side was less than expected, and the social inventory consumption was limited. The market lacks good support, and this round of valuation cycle coincides with the main end of the impulse, so domestic steam and diesel prices maintained a downward trend, "Silver ten peak season" a dismal end.

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